Trends Identified

Diversifying approaches to governance
In the context of rapid globalisation, governments are facing a mismatch between the increasingly long-term, global, systemic challenges facing society and their more national and short-term focus and powers.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Reviewing the legality of cyber weapons, means and methods of warfare
One of the most remarkable phenomena in the realm of modern warfare in recent decades has been the emergence of cyberspace as a new warfighting domain. Cyberspace is now commonly depicted as the fifth warfighting domain, along with land, sea, air and space. The conduct of military operations in this domain, however, has few similarities with the other four. The question of whether existing rules of international humanitarian law (IHL) are adequate for regulating the conduct of cyber-operations has become a matter of contention among the community of international law scholars. This chapter explores the implications of this debate for the conduct of Article 36 reviews. It translates the product of academic discourse into concrete legal advice for Article 36 review practitioners and military lawyers advising commanders on the impact of international law on cyber-operations.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Reviewing the legality of weapons, means and methods of warfare with autonomous capabilities
Artificial intelligence and robotics have made great strides in the past three decades. One major outcome of innovation in these fields has been the remarkable progress of autonomy in weapon systems and the networks in which they are embedded. The advance of autonomy is a notable technological development in the sense that it fundamentally changes the way the military can field forces and make decisions, lethal or otherwise, on the battlefield. This chapter explores the implications of this development for the conduct of Article 36 reviews.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Reviewing the legality of military human enhancement technologies
A third emerging technology area that is expected to shape the future of warfare is the enhancement of military personnel, known as ‘military human enhancement’ (MHE). MHE technologies are not stand-alone weapons or means of warfare, but are tech- nologies designed to improve human warfighting capabilities. It is therefore not obvi- ous whether, and if so how, the requirements of Article 36 apply in this area.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Developing countries will dominate global trade
The weight of global economic activity is shifting from the G7 countries toward emerging economies. Over the next 50 years, this trend is expected to accelerate. On the most conservative projections, the economy of the G20 is expected to quadruple in size, rising from US$38 trillion in 2009 to US$160 trillion in 2060 in real dollar terms.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
The global middle class will grow
The dramatic change in the global economic landscape will be both a cause and a consequence of the emergence of a new Global Middle and Rich class (GMR).4 At present, about a quarter of the global GMR population resides in developing countries. By 2030, the GMR population in developing countries will have overtaken that in advanced countries, and in 2060 about 60 percent of the world’s GMR population will reside in developing countries.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Commodity prices will continue to decline and fluctuate
Global GDP growth has consistently outpaced the demand for commodities. Though commodity prices are high now, creating improvements in the terms of trade for some African countries, it is expected to resume its downward trend. Thus, it is expected that commodity prices will continue to fall relative to manufactured goods and knowledge-intensive services.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Agricultural biotechnology will create a “gene revolution”
It is contended that by 2060, the Green Revolution will be supplanted by a Gene Revolution. Since the early 1980s, modern biotechnology has led to increasing knowledge of the scientific procedures needed to utilise gene-based techniques to improve agriculture. Agricultural biotechnology has the potential to transform African agriculture by raising agricultural productivity and farmers’ incomes. The potential benefits include yield increases in the staple food crops produced in tropical and semi-tropical environments, the creation of drought- and pest-resistant varieties, and shorter harvesting cycles, enabling the planting of several crops per season. Genetic engineering also enables cost-saving techniques, such as nitrogen fixation.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Health innovations will shape health outcomes
Innovations in the health field will bring together the technological process of inventing new drugs, vaccines and diagnostic tools, with profound impact on the health systems of developing countries.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Energy systems will respond to low carbon pressures
Since the global energy crisis in the 1970s, technological innovation in the field of renewable energy has grown rapidly. By 2060, renewable energy could replace conventional fuels in four main sectors: power generation, hot water and space heating, transport fuels and rural energy.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank