Trends Identified
Carbon dioxide (CO2) conversion and use
Long-promised technologies for the capture and underground sequestration of carbon dioxide have yet to be proven commercially viable, even at the scale of a single large power station. New technologies that convert the unwanted CO2 into saleable goods can potentially address both the economic and energetic shortcomings of conventional CCS strategies. One of the most promising approaches uses biologically engineered photosynthetic bacteria to turn waste CO2 into liquid fuels or chemicals, in low-cost, modular solar converter systems. Individual systems are expected to reach hundreds of acres within two years. Being 10 to 100 times as productive per unit of land area, these systems address one of the main environmental constraints on biofuels from agricultural or algal feedstock, and could supply lower carbon fuels for automobiles, aviation or other big liquid-fuel users.
2013
The top 10 emerging technologies for 2013
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Carbon dioxide capture and storage technologies
Carbon capture and geological storage (CCS) is a technique for trapping carbon dioxide as it is emitted from large point sources, compressing it, and transporting it to a suitable storage site where it is injected into the ground. The technology of CCS has significant potential as a mitigation technique for climate change, both within Europe and internationally, particularly in those countries with large reserves of fossil fuels and a fast-increasing energy demand. Given the dominant role that fossil fuels continue to play in primary energy consumption, there is an urgent need to deployment CCS in Europe and beyond.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Carbon dioxide catcher
Practical and affordable ways to capture carbon dioxide from the air can soak up excess greenhouse-gas emissions. Even if we slow carbon dioxide emissions, the warming effect of the greenhouse gas can persist for thousands of years. To prevent a dangerous rise in temperatures, the UN’s climate panel now concludes, the world will need to remove as much as 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere this century. In a surprise finding last summer, Harvard climate scientist David Keith calculated that machines could, in theory, pull this off for less than $100 a ton, through an approach known as direct air capture. That’s an order of magnitude cheaper than earlier estimates that led many scientists to dismiss the technology as far too expensive—though it will still take years for costs to fall to anywhere near that level. But once you capture the carbon, you still need to figure out what to do with it. Carbon Engineering, the Canadian startup Keith cofounded in 2009, plans to expand its pilot plant to ramp up production of its synthetic fuels, using the captured carbon dioxide as a key ingredient. (Bill Gates is an investor in Carbon Engineering.) Zurich-based Climeworks’s direct air capture plant in Italy will produce methane from captured carbon dioxide and hydrogen, while a second plant in Switzerland will sell carbon dioxide to the soft-drinks industry. So will Global Thermostat of New York, which finished constructing its first commercial plant in Alabama last year. Still, if it’s used in synthetic fuels or sodas, the carbon dioxide will mostly end up back in the atmosphere. The ultimate goal is to lock greenhouse gases away forever. Some could be nested within products like carbon fiber, polymers, or concrete, but far more will simply need to be buried underground, a costly job that no business model seems likely to support.In fact, pulling CO2 out of the air is, from an engineering perspective, one of the most difficult and expensive ways of dealing with climate change. But given how slowly we’re reducing emissions, there are no good options left. —James Temple
2019
10 Breakthrough Technologies 2019 - How we’ll invent the future, by Bill Gates
MIT Technology Review
Carbon dioxide reuse
For ages, CO2 has never been considered an issue worth dedicating significant scientific attention to. This has changed with the growing certainty about man-made climate change and the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas: CO2 emissions need to be avoided or CO2 needs to be stored 'eternally' (Carbon Capture and Storage – CCS, see separate fiche). However, CO2 can also be used as a raw material in industrial processes, notably by using the carbon component (C) through chemical or biological reactions. Research and first pilot installations have started on a number of different technology paths (polymerisation, mineralisation, bio-engineering, etc.)
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Centrality of Computer Networks
A globally connected and networked world creates a universal availability of information. Technological innovation is rapidly delivering to the average citizen the benefit of a readily accessible vast collective knowledge and intellectual capital. However, with the significant advances in sensor networks and algorithms, there will be a growing capability for almost every aspect of a citizen’s life to be monitored by the state or other entities such as corporations.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
CEOs Take the Reins
Honestly, it’s about time and while I’m putting this as my closing prediction, it is also the one that has me the most nervous. Countless studies have shown an overwhelming desire from employees to see digital transformation start at the very top of the company, however, trends are still showing that the task is being too often delegated to IT, Marketing or HR departments. So even though we’ve seen a range of C-suite leaders charged with taking the reins of digital transformation, I believe that the CEO will (must) finally step up in 2019, realizing digital transformation isn’t going anywhere. They’ll be making it more of a priority to hire for digital transformation, recognizing the critical nature of building cultures that can change, and the value of reskilling employees and hiring for agility—learning to trust data more than ever before. That’s good news for all companies in 2019.
2018
Top 10 Digital Transformation Trends For 2019
Forbes
CEOs will work hard to become more inclusive leaders — or leave.
The new generation of workers expects a different kind of leadership and has now reached the critical mass where their opinion is corporate law. “We were primarily led by 'my way or the highway' type leaders and that does not work with this environment,” says Carla Harris, vice chairman and managing director at Morgan Stanley. “I think you're going to see more leaders looking for leadership development or leadership guidance on how to be more collaborative, how to spur innovation, how to teach people how to fail and how to innovate. I think you're going to see far more money spent on speakers and resources around that.” Not immediately, but over time executives who don’t make that effort and pivot will be pushed out, she warns.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Challenges to governance
Emerging powers are increasingly challenging establishedglobalgovernanceinstitutionsandrequestinggreaterroles.Existing governance structures, particularly in weak and failing states, are not sufficiently addressing the requirements of the broader population.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Changing consumer behavior
26% of responding CEOs answered that they were 'extremely concerned'
2018
Global CEO survey
PWC
Changing Demographics
Future demographics will be driven by diverse effects. The world’s population is expected to reach more than 8 billion by 2030,28 but this growth will be unbalanced with varying regional effects. The average age of most Western populations is forecast to increase from the early to the mid-40s by 2030.29 Given higher birth and immigration rates, the United States will remain the youngest of the leading powers, while China’s population will age more rapidly given its increased longevity and lower birth rates. Accordingly, China will join Japan, Europe and Russia as one of the most rapidly ageing societies. India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country, whereas Russia and Brazil are likely to follow divergent paths with expected strong growth in Brazil and population decline in Russia. By 2030, the African continent is anticipated to have the fastest growing population.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO