Trends Identified
Changing Demographics
The global population is likely to grow from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 8.8 billion by 2040.140 The developing world will account for most of the growth, remaining relatively youthful, in contrast to the developed world and China, which will experience little population growth and undergo significant increases in median age.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics
The world is currently experiencing a major shift in health problems related to economic development and changing lifestyles. Since 2000, the global burden of disease from communicable diseases (such as HIV, tuberculosis, and measles) has been outweighed by non-communicable diseases (such as cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes). Non-communicable diseases are also the most important cause of death in the world and are typically associated with developed-world lifestyles. But although communicable diseases are globally in decline, they still pose a significant health burden, especially in the developing world. A third factor in changing health conditions is the persistent threat of pandemics.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Changing domestic determinants
As demonstrated most recently by the Arab Spring, however, the possibility of widespread changes in the relationship between the governing and the governed is likely. The era of dictators seems to be coming to an end – at least, of dictatorships as we know them – although it is still too early to tell. The power of social media, rising standards of living, increasing access to education, and urbanization will all drive citizens to demand more of their governments.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Changing Energy Mix
The energy mix will evolve responding to cost, availability and technological developments. There will be continued utilisation of all current energy sources, and fossil fuels are likely to continue to account for over 75% of total energy usage.174 Oil will remain the dominant fuel, given its importance in the transportation sector and the availability of infrastructure that supports its distribution.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Changing global patterns
At the international level, the relative power of Western liberal democracies will decline as they struggle to deal with both demographic and economic shifts, even as the power of other countries increases. While the trends seem clear that China’s power is rising while the US is declining as a hegemonic power, these are likely to develop over several generations. Power is slowly but clearly slipping from the Atlantic alliance to the Pacific region (although the differences within Asia are probably greater than those within the Atlantic region).
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Changing Patterns of Behaviour
Growing material prosperity is likely to result in behavioural changes with associated effects, such as changes in consumption, diet and health. The proportion of the world population considered to be middle-income has increased rapidly over the last 30 years and, out to 2040, may increase by a further 80 million per annum if rapid economic development continues in countries such as India, China and Brazil. Consumption of food, water, energy and minerals will remain positively correlated with increasing prosperity despite efforts towards conservation, recycling and environmentalism.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Changing power in the international system
In many ways, the power balance in the international system in 2017 looks broadly similar to the world in 2000. Yet in some fundamental ways, the world has changed considerably. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have left its participants wary of foreign intervention. China has expanded its global presence. Russia has demonstrated a willingness to intervene in neighbouring countries and attack democracies with information ‘wars’. And the impact of the 2007-08 financial crisis has hit many nations’ capabilities to fund military increases. There are some broad trends that are likely to continue through 2035: the United States will remain the largest military power; China and regional leaders will see their power grow; Russia will focus on areas of asymmetric advantage to counteract its declining population; and the creation of a unified European military structure with significant expeditionary power will be one of the biggest wild cards in the international system.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Characteristics of the Future Operational Environment
The individual environments will be interlinked and porous, especially with regard to influence and information.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Chatbots
These artificial intelligence (AI) programs simulate interactive human conversation using key pre-calculated user phrases and auditory or text-based signals. Chatbots have recently started to use self-created sentences in lieu of pre-calculated user phrases, providing better results. Chatbots are frequently used for basic customer service on social networking hubs and are often included in operating systems as intelligent virtual assistants. We have recently witnessed the use of chatbots as personal assistants capable of machine-to-machine communications as well. In fact, chatbots mimic humans so well that some countries are considering requiring chatbots to disclose that they are not human. Industry is looking to expand chatbot applications to interaction with cognitive-impaired children as a way to provide therapeutic support.
2018
IEEE Computer Society Predicts the Future of Tech: Top 10 Technology Trends for 2019
IEEE Computer Society
Chatbots Good to Great
Hear me out on this one. I know we’ve all had extremely frustrating chatbot experiences as we round out 2018. But the good news is that huge steps continue to be made in the way of natural language processing and sentiment analytics—so many, in fact, that some believe NLP will shake up the entire service industry in ways we’ve never imagined. Think about all the services that could be provided without humans—fast food lines, loan processors, job recruiters! What’s more, NLP allows companies to gather insights and improve their service based on them. Some 40% of large businesses have or will adopt it by the end of 2019—which makes it one of our top 2019 digital transformation trends. Now, I know many are alarmed by where AI and Chatbots may impact the workforce, but I’m also bullish that companies are going to be upskilling their work forces rather than displacing them as machines may be good at delivering on clearcut requests but leave a lot to be desired when it comes to dealing with empathy and human emotion required to deliver great customer experiences.
2018
Top 10 Digital Transformation Trends For 2019
Forbes