Trends Identified
Increasing environmental pollution
Across the world, ecosystems are today exposed to critical levels of pollution in increasingly complex mixtures. Human activities (such as energy generation and agriculture), global population growth and changing consumption patterns are the key drivers behind this growing environmental burden.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Increasing CO2 emissions
Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) have been the main driver of rising temperatures since the middle of the 20th century. The main GHG in the earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone. CO2 is the most important GHG that can be directly influenced by humans. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fuel combustion are by far the greatest contributor of GHG emissions.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Increased stress and damage to vulnerable ecosystems and habitats
As cities expand into the countryside, the habitats of many animals and plants are reduced. Roads and other infrastructure are carving valuable habitats dividing wildlife populations into increasingly smaller groups. This has serious consequences for some of Europe’s most endangered species.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Increased role of government in the private sector
2010
Business Redefined - A look at the global trends that are changing the world of business
EY
Increased Resource Scarcity
Nations need increasing amounts of energy and raw materials to sustain growth and maintain an advantage in the globalised economy. Limited natural resources, supply vulnerabilities, and the uneven distribution of energy and resources increase the potential for conflict between importers, exporters and transit countries, particularly in politically unstable regions. Any nation that holds considerable oil, natural gas reserves or deposits of rare earth elements and other strategic materials43 might leverage its position both for political and economic purposes.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Increased inequality
The bulk of the worlds population, the middle class, particularly in western society has felt the squeeze due to stagnation in real earnings after inflation adjustments, loss of benefits and overall compensation as the private sector has sought to reduce expanses by outsourcing support and labour costs and shift to part time versus full time employment.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Increased Access to Technology
Commercial research and technology has begun to outpace that of governments in the development of new technologies. Many of the advances in goods, materials and technologies intended for civilian use (e.g. nuclear energy, biochemical medicine, or access to space and its associated technologies) will have potential applications in the development of weapon systems. This increases the possibility that non-state actors could gain access to advanced weapons or even WMD/E. The effectiveness of regulatory conventions intended to prevent the spread of potentially dangerous technologies will be reduced by increased access within the globalised marketplace. As world trade grows, norms regarding non-proliferation may become secondary to economic benefits. The threat of uncontrolled proliferation of weapon technology to non-state actors will increase as innovation, research and development, production, and distribution become more open and globalised.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Incomes are rising in the U.S., but the increase is not being felt equally by all Americans.
Household income in the U.S. is at or near the highest level it has been in the last 50 years. At the same time, income inequality continues to grow, and the growth has been more pronounced among some racial and ethnic groups than among others. For example, the gap between Asians at the top and bottom of the income ladder nearly doubled between 1970 and 2016. Over that period, Asians went from being one of the groups with the lowest income inequality to the highest. A separate analysis found that, among Hispanics, the median income of foreign-born workers – but not U.S.-born workers – had returned to its pre-Great Recession peak in 2017. The share of Americans who are in the middle class has fallen over the last several decades. About half (52%) of adults were considered middle class in 2016, down from 61% in 1971. The share of adults in the middle class has stabilized around half since 2011. Meanwhile, median incomes have grown more slowly for middle-class households than for upper- or lower-class households. More broadly, the public also sees differences by race and ethnicity when it comes to getting ahead in the U.S. today. A majority of Americans (56%) say that being black hurts a person’s ability to get ahead a lot or a little, while 51% say being Hispanic is a disadvantage, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. In contrast, about six-in-ten (59%) say being white helps a person’s ability to get ahead in the U.S. today. Views on the impact of being Asian are more mixed.
2019
6 demographic trends shaping the U.S. and the world in 2019
Pew Research Center
Income growth
Between 2010 and 2020, the world’s bottom 40% will nearly double their spending power from US$3 trillion to US$5.8 trillion;
2015
SDG industry matrix
KPMG
Inclusiveness and vulnerable populations
In the face of migration and ageing populations, uncertainties about the future of work and job automation, and continued gender and economic inequalities despite decades of attempted reforms, world governments are turning to innovation to help create more inclusive societies where no one is left behind – especially those who are most vulnerable. Many countries have rallied behind global initiatives such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), while some have acted on their own initiative when confronted with unexpected threats to the well-being of their people. The last few years have seen record levels of people displaced from their homes due to violence and conflict and environmental factors such as climate change, as well as global waves of nationalism that limit the ability of these migrants to integrate well into their new communities. The same period has witnessed targeted gender-inclusion initiatives and a reckoning for gender-based mistreatment, as well as continued disparities in pay and political inclusion. Other major issues are visible on the horizon, such as ageing populations and the displacement of jobs through automation. The world is at a crossroads with governments challenged to acknowledge new realities and create new solutions through innovation.
2018
Embracing Innovation in Government: Global Trends 2018
OECD