Trends Identified
Communication devices for ubiquitous information access
2006
Global Technology Revolution 2020
RAND Corporation
Commodity prices will continue to decline and fluctuate
Global GDP growth has consistently outpaced the demand for commodities. Though commodity prices are high now, creating improvements in the terms of trade for some African countries, it is expected to resume its downward trend. Thus, it is expected that commodity prices will continue to fall relative to manufactured goods and knowledge-intensive services.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Commercial Imperative
Global economic growth, resource pressure in its widest sense and increasing socio-economic dependency ratios will fuel demand; creating opportunities for innovation and investment. Development is increasingly likely to be directed towards commercial imperatives. For example, business enterprises accounted for 68% of OECD Research and Development (R&D) expenditure.233 This aspect will drive innovators to identify maximum applications and markets for their discoveries, with interdisciplinary R&D likely to lead to the most revolutionary outcomes.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Commercial Drones
The race is on!
2017
Top 50 Emerging Technologies 2017
Frost & Sullivan
Combinatorial-technology explosion
Digitization, machine learning, and the life sciences are advancing and combining with one another to redefine what companies do and where industry boundaries lie. We’re not just being invaded by a few technologies, in other words, but rather are experiencing a combinatorial technology explosion.
2017
The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress
McKinsey
College admissions will get personal.
“The two numbers that have signaled whether a student can get into a top college — test scores and high school grades — are being called into question as more institutions go test optional and grade inflation is on the rise,” says Jeff Selingo, a higher education strategist. “The recent Harvard lawsuit points to the need for colleges to shape their classes amid an influx of applications, particularly ensuring racial and economic diversity.” So, what’s next? There’s no one simple solution, but colleges will start to shift toward weighing the “whole” applicant, looking at accomplishments beyond the classroom, says Selingo. Colleges are already sampling new approaches, like a form that allows students to submit videos and written work to flesh out their application or a new College Board tool that allows officials to better understand not just the high school the student attended but also their neighborhood based on census data.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Collectively rich, individually not so rich
Emerging markets are expected to grow faster than developed economies, and as a result developing countries such as China and India are likely to overtake current global leaders such as the US, Japan and Western Europe, while other emerging markets, such as Indonesia and Mexico, will rank among the top ten economies at market exchanges rates by 2050, overtaking economies such as Italy and Russia. By contrast, in terms of income per capita, a measure of individual spending power, today’s advanced economies are likely to continue to dominate.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Collapse of Global Communications.
A failure of the global communications system could occur for a variety of reasons; for example the destruction of satellites following an orbital electromagnetic pulse detonation or solar flare, or the complete overload of the global ICT infrastructure. Such an event is not without precedent. For example, in 1859, solar flare activity was linked to the collapse of the telegraph system when spark discharges shocked telegraph operators and set telegraph paper on fire. A similar collapse in the modern world would cause trade, commerce and the Internet to grind to a halt. Military operations dependent on the availability of communications networks would also be put at risk. Remaining bandwidth would see intense competition for access.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Collapse of a Pivotal State.
The sudden collapse of a pivotal state would threaten regional and global stability. For example, the descent into instability of a major hydrocarbon exporting state, such as Nigeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia or Russia, would have local and regional consequences, disrupting global energy supplies. This would affect global energy markets causing widespread economic, social and political dislocation. Similarly, if internal tensions caused instability within China the global economy could be disrupted by the simultaneous drop in demand for raw materials and reduced supply.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence