Trends Identified

Closing the ads gap

By now, everyone knows we’re in the pay-to-play era on social. Accordingly, marketers are increasing social ad budgets (up 32 percent in 2018 alone) and producing more ads than ever before.29One of every four Facebook Pages now use paid media,30 and Facebook already accounts for 23 percent of total U.S. digital ad spending.

2019

Social media trends 2019

Hootsuit

Closed nuclear fuel cycle with fast neutron reactors

One of the limitations for modern nuclear energy with an open nuclear fuel cycle and thermal neutron reactors is the significant and ever growing amount of stored irradiated nuclear fuel. Moreover, these technologies do not make it fully possible to use the energy stored in nuclear energy resources, as more than 90% of extracted uranium remains in enrichment plant heaps, and the effectiveness of the fuel’s use in hot water reactors is low. An integrated solution to existing problems is possible by concentrating efforts and resources to develop next- generation nuclear energy based on fast neutron reactors with a closed nuclear fuel cycle. This is a set of connected technological solutions, capable of guaranteeing extended reproduction of fissile nuclear material together with generating electricity while minimizing radioactive load on the environment across all technological conversion stages and, thus, having a revolutionary impact on the global nuclear energy market. A further benefit of the closed nuclear fuel cycle is the ability to use fast neutron reactors to solve the historically inherited problem of accumulating nuclear waste. This innovative technology is fundamentally different from existing ones due to the lack of the two key expensive technological conversion processes – uranium extraction and enrichment – and the existence of a technologically new conversion process – the multifold refabrication of the nuclear fuel which is combined with the immobilisation and final isolation of the high-level radioactive waste.

2016

Russia 2030: science and technology foresight

Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Climate winners and losers

Climate change is about more than melting icecaps and flooded coastal cities. Climate change action, or inaction, will affect which nations and economies become tomorrow’s economic and geopolitical winners and losers. Food production could shift. Canada, Siberia and potentially even parts of Antarctica could become more habitable and productive, while current bread-baskets in the US and China face increasing desertification and extreme weather.

2017

Foresigth

Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures

Climate change: Pragmatism & Heightened awareness

During the past 12 months, climate change has soared up the public agenda. So what are CEOs now doing to combat the threat of global warming? At first glance, our survey suggests that they are largely reactive. But closer inspection shows greater levels of commitment, especially among CEOs running big companies.

2008

11th Annual global CEO Survey

PWC

Climate change: more disasters

The likely trends over the next thirty years are for increases in the severity and intensity of sudden onset natural disasters, particularly those related to weather (storms, hurricanes, cyclones, flooding). These will increasingly affect urban populations, in part because there will simply be more people living in cities and in part because more people will be living on more marginal land. Climate change will also drive rural to urban migration.

2011

Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action

International Review of the Red Cross

Climate change, environment, and health issues will demand attention

A range of global hazards pose imminent and longer-term threats that will require collective action to address—even as cooperation becomes harder. More extreme weather, water and soil stress, and food insecurity will disrupt societies. Sea-level rise, ocean acidification, glacial melt, and pollution will change living patterns. Tensions over climate change will grow. Increased travel and poor health infrastructure will make infectious diseases harder to manage.

2017

Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress

USA, US National Intelligence Council

Climate change is causing more extreme weather events and escalating losses

The world’s top ten hottest years on record have occurred since 1998, and the top five since 2010125. Since pre-industrial times, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased by 40%; the Arctic sea ice extent shrunk on average between 3.5 and 4.1% per decade in the 1979–2002 period; sea level rose at an average annual rate of 3.2 mm/year from 1993 to 2010, and since 1961 the average annual temperature of oceans has been increasing and the warming effect has reached a depth of at least 3000m.

2017

Surfing the digital tsunami

Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Climate Change and Weak States

Weak states have limited capacity for governance, and many are unlikely to adapt to the environmental challenges of climate change.168 Weak states are likely to have youthful populations, large families and be dependant on rural production for their income. Extreme weather events and increasing temperature will exacerbate instability due to immediate shortages of food and water. Longer-term effects may include a degradation of agricultural land that increases internal and regional migration. Weak states will be insufficiently prosperous to procure alternative supplies through external markets. In addition, they often have poor human rights records and suffer endemic corruption which weakens governance and service provision, increasing the likelihood of recurring instability. As the severity and incidence of internal instability increases, exacerbated by climate change, long-term societal changes can occur, such as the creation of large numbers of orphaned children or the displacement of large ethnic or tribal groups.

2010

Global strategic trends - out to 2040

UK, Ministry of Defence

Climate change and resources scarcity

As the world becomes more populous, urbanised and prosperous, demand for energy, food and water will rise. But the Earth has a finite amount of natural resources to satisfy this demand. Without significant global action, average temperatures are predicted to increase by more than two degrees Celsius, a threshold at which scientists believe significant and potentially irreversible environmental changes will occur.

2017

Megatrends

PWC

Climate change and resource competition

Changes in the global climate due to rising greenhouse gases will not be reversed by 2035, even if great strides are made with the implementation of political agreements to greatly reduce carbon usage in the future. As the consequences of climate change become increasingly apparent -- and natural events such as famines and water strain become linked to climate change in popular discourse -- the world is likely to see climate-related political disputes proliferate at the national and international level. Renewable energy will proliferate and become cost-competitive around the world, but will trigger instability in countries dependent on fossil fuels, many of which are in Europe’s neighbourhood.

2017

Global trends to 2035

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)