Trends Identified
The values that built the West will have been tested to breaking point
We forget the checks and balances that bolster our democracies at our peril, writes Kenneth Roth, Executive Director of Human Rights Watch.
2016
Eight predictions for 2030
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The unstoppable freight train that is automation
The more intelligent machines become, the more they can do for us. That means even more processes, decisions, functions and systems can be automated and carried out by algorithms or robots. Eventually, a wide range of industries and jobs will be impacted by automation. However, for now, the first wave of jobs that machines are taking can be categorized using the four Ds: dull, dirty, dangerous and dear. This means humans will no longer be needed to do the jobs that machines can do faster, safer, cheaper and more accurately. Beyond the four Ds, machines, robots and algorithms will replace – or augment – many human jobs, including professional jobs in fields like law or accounting. From truck drivers to bricklayers to doctors, the list of jobs that are likely to be affected by automation is surprising. One estimate reckons that 47 percent of US jobs are at risk of automation.
2017
9 Technology Mega Trends That Will Change The World In 2018
Forbes
The uncharted
Businesses are not just creating new products and services; they’re shaping new digital industries. From technology standards, to ethical norms, to government mandates, in an ecosystem-driven digital economy, one thing is clear: a wide scope of rules still needs to be defined. To fulfil their digital ambitions, companies must take on a leadership role to help shape the new rules of the game. Those who take the lead will find a place at or near the center of their new ecosystem, while those who don’t risk being left behind.
2017
Technology vision 2017, amplify you
Accenture
The UK economy: 'The popular revolt against bankers will become impossible to resist'
It will be a second financial crisis in the 2010s – probably sooner than later – that will prove to be the remaking of Britain. Confronted by a second trillion-pound bank bailout in less than 10 years, it will be impossible for the City and wider banking system to resist reform. The popular revolt against bankers, their current business model in which neglect of the real economy is embedded and the scale of their bonuses – all to be underwritten by bailouts from taxpayers – will become irresistible. The consequent rebalancing of the British economy, already underway, will intensify.Britain, in thrall to finance since 1945, will break free – spearheading a second Industrial Revolution.In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country, the key state in a reconfigured EU. Our leading universities will become powerhouses of innovation, world centres in exploiting the approaching avalanche of scientific and technological breakthroughs. A reformed financial system will allow British entrepreneurs to get the committed financial backing they need, becoming the capitalist leaders in Europe. And, after a century of trying, Britain will at last build itself a system for developing apprentices and technicians that is no longer the Cinderella of the education system.It will not be plain sailing. Massive political turbulence in China and its conflict with the US will define part of the next 25 years – and there will be a period when the world trading and financial system retreats from openness.How far beggar-my-neighbour competitive devaluations and protection will develop is hard to predict, but protectionist trends are there for all to see. Commodity prices will go much higher and there will be shortages of key minerals, energy, water and some basic foodstuffs. The paradox is that this will be good news for Britain. It will force the state to reengage with the economy and to build a matrix of institutions that will support innovation and investment, rather as it did between 1931 and 1950. New Labour began this process tremulously in its last year in office; the coalition government is following through. These will be lean years for the traditional Conservative right, but whether it will be a liberal One Nation Tory party, ongoing coalition governments or the Labour party that will be the political beneficiary is not yet sure. The key point is that those 20 years in the middle of the 20th century witnessed great industrial creativity and an unsung economic renaissance until the country fell progressively under the stultifying grip of the City of London. My guess is that the same, against a similarly turbulent global background, is about to happen again. My caveat is if the City remains strong, in which case economic decline and social division will escalate.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
The U.S. unauthorized immigrant population is at its lowest level in more than a decade.
There were 10.7 million unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. in 2016, the lowest total since 2004, according to the most recent Pew Research Center estimates. The decrease is due mainly to fewer Mexicans entering the U.S. without authorization. The only birth region with an increase in unauthorized immigrants since 2007 was Central America – mainly El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Only three of the nation’s 20 largest metropolitan areas had larger unauthorized immigrant populationsin 2016 than in 2007. State populations of unauthorized immigrants vary widely. In some states, unauthorized immigrants represented one-third or more of all immigrants in 2016; in others, they accounted for less than one-in-ten. Nationally, unauthorized immigrants are one-quarter of all U.S. immigrants. The Mexican share of unauthorized immigrants also ranges widely, making up more than two-thirds of the total in the four states that border Mexico but far less in East Coast states. Nationally, Mexicans are about half of unauthorized immigrants. As with the total population, births to unauthorized immigrants have declined since 2007. About 250,000 babies were born to unauthorized immigrant parents in 2016, a decline of 36% from 390,000 in 2007, when the nation’s unauthorized immigrant population peaked.
2019
6 demographic trends shaping the U.S. and the world in 2019
Pew Research Center
The triumph of globalism
There is recognition that the socio-economic challenges do not recognize national boundaries and are best addressed cooperatively. Global governance has received new lifeblood with the full support of the traditional world powers and the newly industrialized countries. While states have taken the lead in establishing this new global order, the emergence of an active global citizenry, together with a newly invigorated UN system, has played an important role in the formation of new issue-focused networks that tackle a range of pressing grand challenges around energy, food, environment, health and poverty.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
The Trillion-Dollar Sprint
2018 is likely to be the year that a leading Fortune 500 company (think tech titans Apple, Google, Microsoft or Amazon, with petroleum giant Saudi Aramco crashing the tech party) surpasses the trillion dollar valuation mark. The trillion-dollar question is which corporate behemoth will be the first to claim this bragging right? Attainment of this benchmark will highlight a new level of corporate power and influence but will also result in closer monitoring by competitors, regulators and consumers. These companies might become trillion dollar babies but key for them will be earning and retaining public trust the world over.
2018
Top 10 Tech Trends For 2018
Forbes
The transformed financial landscape
2010
Business Redefined - A look at the global trends that are changing the world of business
EY
The Tragedy of the Commons in Influencer Marketing
Influencer marketing only works when the communications are authentic – from the perspective of the audience. When influencers are offered a load of cash to pimp the latest product or service, the audience is usually tolerant for a while. But when an influencer veers towards shill too often, credibility loss and audience erosion are sure to follow. We know this because we’ve seen it before – with celebrities. Will.i.am isn’t a particularly valuable partner for brands these days (in our opinion), because everyone knows he’s for sale. And yet, some agencies and lots of brands are happy to stump up to established and emerging digital influencers and expect that the influencer will become a spokesperson for the brand. Over time, this threatens to disrupt the opportunity for everyone as audiences question the credibility not just of individual influencers, but of the whole medium.
2018
Key digital trends for 2018
Ogilvy
The tip of the iceberg: Accelerating technological change
Technology—from the printing press to the steam engine and the Internet—has always been a great force in overturning the status quo. The difference today is the sheer ubiquity of technology in our lives and the speed of change.
2015
The four global forces breaking all the trends
McKinsey