Trends Identified

Where does private end and public begin?

By allowing coordination with systems outside the home, the line between home and work and between public and private will continue to blur. Home systems that sync with external systems (such those at work or school) will allow occupants to work, learn and relax in one locale. But such systems could also sync with neighbourhoods, regions, municipalities, utilities and more to support decision-making about land-use planning, infrastructure, health outcomes and development.

2013

Metascan 3 emerging technologies

Canada, Policy Horizons Canada

The construction of 3D-printed homes

Innovations in robotics, AI and building materials may change both the look and the construction of new homes. The advent of large-scale 3D printing means that homes could be built more rapidly and with nano-enhanced materials, making them even stronger and more energy-efficient than they are now. It could also mean lower costs and greater flexibility in home and urban design.

2013

Metascan 3 emerging technologies

Canada, Policy Horizons Canada

The autonomous home

The trend toward decentralization of energy and other infrastructure will make homes more autonomous, but will make the need for coordination among systems even more crucial. Distributed energy systems will result in homes that can both contribute to and draw from the grid, but such innovations will be dependent on advances in energy production and storage. Unconstrained by traditional urban services, new homes could proliferate in areas well beyond urban planning control.

2013

Metascan 3 emerging technologies

Canada, Policy Horizons Canada

Fewer, but more productive, workers

Artificial intelligence (AI), sensors, data analytics and robots will drive significant change in many workplaces in Canada and around the world.
These technologies will transform many jobs where a routine physical or mental task is repeated;
AI will increasingly handle the routine, while workers will be free to focus on the exceptions that AI cannot handle. AI and data analytics will also increase productivity and the demand for non-routine and professional skills by reframing the way we design, coordinate, manage, deliver and assess products and services. Sensors will provide workers with a much broader picture of the processes they manage, improving efficiency and client satisfaction. Cheaper, mass-produced robots and autonomous delivery vehicles will change the flow, timing and flexibility of work. Working conditions and on-the-job safety will greatly improve for dangerous professions, largely through the use of sensors, drones and robots in fields such as mining, policing and rescue missions.

2013

Metascan 3 emerging technologies

Canada, Policy Horizons Canada

More contract and part-time workers

As noted in MetaScan 2, more and more workers will likely be part-time, self-employed contactors in the emerging “project economy.” For the duration of a project, they may work in an office, in their home or from a creative hub or public space. Smart surfaces will enable workers to create or share a workspace anywhere, with capacity for virtual face- to-face and group-to-group collaboration. Both high- and low-skilled workers will do tasks or jobs of varying dura on for multiple employers, brokered through social media and “microtasking” apps.

2013

Metascan 3 emerging technologies

Canada, Policy Horizons Canada

Growing number of international ‘virtual workers’

The same tools that allow Canadians to work from a coffee shop will also support them in becoming “virtual workers” for employers in other countries. If they develop the right skills, they could compete globally for short tasks or part-time or full-time work. The system will also allow foreigners to bid for tasks and jobs in Canada. The workforce will become increasingly global. Worksites are emerging that facilitate finding virtual work (e.g., freelancer.ca or eLance.com). Reputation systems (e.g., eBay’s ratings system) will track individual performance, competence and specific skills to allow virtual employers to quickly find competent and trustworthy workers.

2013

Metascan 3 emerging technologies

Canada, Policy Horizons Canada

New organizational structures

The new technologies, new work arrangements and other global change drivers are likely to generate new kinds of organizations. For instance, one can imagine a service corporation where all of the services are provided by AI with fewer human employees. A growing number of modern corporations will have a small management team that contracts out all functions through the entire product life cycle. It is possible that unorganized skilled workers will find people with complementary skills and create informal, temporary teams to take advantage of an opportunity to work together virtually to deliver a good or service.

2013

Metascan 3 emerging technologies

Canada, Policy Horizons Canada

The arrival of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles.

The transportation system is in transition. As old vehicles are replaced, the new ones will be more autonomous, smarter and more efficient. Autonomous wheelchairs and delivery vehicles, for example, may become available in hospitals, factories, warehouses and resorts. Although not yet fully autonomous, vehicles with “driver assist” are the new standard for public and personal transportation. Diagnostic tools that use AI will enable vehicles to service themselves by seeking oil changes, brake servicing – even cleaning. As vehicles become even more autonomous, their interiors could transform, allowing passengers to comfortably work or play while they move from place to place. And cars will sync with other devices (e.g., phone, computer, refrigerator) to simplify life even more. Accidents could still occur but identifying who is to blame (the manufacturer, the car’s AI designer or the owner) will become a challenge. All of these factors will contribute to new notions of vehicle ownership and liability.

2013

Metascan 3 emerging technologies

Canada, Policy Horizons Canada

The internet of “moving” things.

It’s not just vehicles; the transportation system itself may also transform. AI in cars and trucks will benefit from highway – and eventually city – roads that include sensors, reflectors, information transmitters and other tools that support autonomous vehicles. Although not all vehicles will be fully autonomous, the majority will at least be “linked” with each other and with traffic control systems to facilitate coordination and communication. This will greatly improve the efficiency of the system, allowing vehicles to move more quickly and, in some areas, travel in a highly coordinated manner that minimizes gridlock. But privacy could be an emerging issue, since all vehicles may now be monitored, mapped – and possibly even controlled – remotely. Trucking and rail transportation methods will continue to compete. Lighter rail cars and the availability of biodiesel means rail may compete more strongly with trucking; however, automated caravans of trucks equipped with sensors will increase the efficiency of the trucking system and reduce costs.

2013

Metascan 3 emerging technologies

Canada, Policy Horizons Canada

Moving from gasoline engines to hybrids and electric.

The power behind transportation is changing. Both electric and hybrid engines will become more common. Energy exchanges between homes and cars using smart grids and “smart homes” technologies will become possible. Fossil fuels may be supplemented with diesel or bioethanol produced locally in bioreactors. The use of light, strong nanomaterials, including nanocarbon, in conjunction with more efficient and longer-range engines and batteries, means vehicles will be safer, weigh less and go farther. The availability of stronger and more heat-tolerant nanomaterials may allow higher running temperatures and more energy-efficient engines. Regardless of mode (airplane, rail, ship or personal car), vehicle

2013

Metascan 3 emerging technologies

Canada, Policy Horizons Canada