Trends Identified
Temporary jobs become the norm
In 2012, the number of Canadians with temporary jobs – often low-paying and with few benefits – was estimated to be 13.6% of the labour force and growing three times faster than traditional jobs. As these technologies evolve, we expect they will increase productivity but may result in more part-time work, short-term contracts, micro-jobs and more foreign “virtual workers” (as described in MetaScan 2). Many have described these jobs as precarious as they lack security in terms of employment, income, skill and career development. As corporations try to reduce costs to increase competitiveness, the number of temporary jobs is growing. Should we look for ways to make these workers more productive? It is interesting to note that the high-income creative class and lower-income temporary workers face similar challenges and have similar needs.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
New patterns of inequality
New technologies may disrupt the consensus on what constitutes equal and fair treatment for citizens. The technologies may level the playing field for some, while creating new barriers for others. The public policy questions include timing, efficacy and affordability.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The end of privacy
Sensors and the artificial intelligence to use and interpret the information gathered by them will become cheaper, better and faster over the next 15 years. Advances in location sensing gives an indication of the trend. Recently, Google announced the goal to have smart phones in 2015 with positional accuracy within 10 centimetres, with sufficient resolution to notice you sitting up from your desk, taking a call or snuggling up to a partner. By 2028, a package that performs like today’s smart phones could cost as little as $2 to produce. At that price, sensing will be nearly ubiquitous. Most people will carry one or several tools that measure ambient audio, location and air quality. Service providers and developers will be watching and listening to understand what’s going on, what’s around us and where we are, all to feed the helper applications that will support us in our daily lives. One’s identity will be increasingly knowable as well. Today, digital chips track our identity and purchasing histories; in the future, face recognition, and gait and gesture recognition will help identify those not digitally broadcasting their presence to the world. Will our current rules and norms about privacy hold up in the face of improved sensing? Is privacy the right to be left alone, or is it the right to prevent others from knowing anything about you?
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Infrastructure in transition
Infrastructure comes in many forms: transportation, buildings, services and communications technology, among others. There is a high probability that infrastructure of every kind will be influenced by the technologies explored in this foresight study.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Shifting competitive advantage
The emerging technologies will make it harder to find and keep competitive advantage in the production of some goods and services. Bioproduction through synthetic biology will likely make it easier and cheaper to make some classes of goods. These technologies have the potential to help countries be more self-sufficient in some foods, fuels and materials. Advanced nanomaterials and nanodevices are likely to require a more educated workforce and more intricate production, resulting in a smaller number of competitors using these technologies.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Strengthening the risk management system
Risk management is an approach that allows governments to assess, implement and evaluate policy, regulations, processes – and, in some instances, even products and services – to ensure that standards for public safety are met. Current approaches to risk management rarely go beyond the short- and mediumterm, focusing on only first- and second-order consequences. The discipline of foresight can assist by systematically considering plausible futures, which can help uncover unexpected risks and buy time in the face of future challenges. As new technologies proliferate, the possibility of unforeseen consequences increases and citizens will look to governments to help them make sense of a potentially shifting terrain. This presents a variety of possible challenges.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Regulation of rapidly evolving S&T
The rate of change in science and technology is likely to accelerate, and science and technology are likely to play an increasingly important role in our economy and our lives. Product safety, public trust and competitive advantage will best be served by systems with efficient and timely testing and regulation.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Traditional notions of IP may no longer be relevant
The institutionalization of intellectual property (IP) regimes by national governments is designed to create economic incentives for research and development that, over time, may improve social welfare. The new technologies could help solve global problems in areas like health care, energy and security. Rigid and globally inconsistent IP regimes could allow IP owners to block innovation, limit the pace of development, exclude the possibility of new entrants and even threaten international relations.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Exploring new approaches to productivity and innovation
The emerging technologies described in this study point to the importance of innovation as a key driver of the economy. Human capital, government policies, societal actors from all sectors and physical infrastructure are major elements of an innovation system. How can we redesign societal systems to maximize innovation?
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The rise of the global middle class
With regard to global and regional income distribution and associated societal developments, our research identified six major trends. First decreasing inequality between countries, second the rise of a new global middle class. Third, European and North American share of the global middle class fall significantly over the coming decades. Fourth, in addition, there is evidence that the middle class in these regions is on the decline. Fifth, the relation between inequality and the future strength and composition of the global middle class. Sixth, global middle-class growth will engender the flourishing of democratic and ‘self-expression’ values.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation