Trends Identified
Growing and ageing population
The analysis of qualitative and quantitative data on demographic change helped identify three major trends as particularly relevant. First, the global demographic profile will be characterised by population growth, led by middle-income and lower-income countries, about which the literature and projections strongly agree. The second major demographic trend analysed in the literature has to do with population ageing, initially in high-income countries and subsequently in the rest of the world, starting with middle-income countries. The literature points to a third trend that is likely to develop in the European Union and other developed economies in the future, namely transformations in the structure of families and household sizes.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Employment and the changing labour market
Four major trends have been identified with regard to employment and associated labour market developments. First, global population growth and population ageing are projected to have a significant impact on the workforce in the future. The second trend analysed focuses on the changes in labour force participation and growing vulnerabilities in the work place. The third major trend that resonates strongly in the literature concerns the diverging demand and supply of skills and patterns of employment creation. Finally, the working environment will be influenced by technological developments. New modes of production and manufacturing technologies are expected to advance further.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Evolving patterns and impacts of migration
migration will continue to be a complex phenomenon, with a variety of factors influencing people’s decision to migrate (provided their decision is voluntary) and evolving diversity in patterns and types of migration. internal migration will continue to be closely related to urbanization. There is global evidence that while migration from developing to developed countries remains strong, there are signs that migration to Europe and the United States is decreasing, with uneven reductions across different countries (Development Research Centre on Migration, 2009; OECD, 2011c). Looking ahead, some authors argue that an ageing Europe in need of inward migration to counter the decline in labour force may end up competing for migrants not only with other Western nations, but also with the emerging economies (see Fargues, 2008), although demographic change varies in impact and speed across EU countries.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Connected societies, empowered individuals?
Trends in connection, education and empowerment are interlaced in multiple ways and act as drivers, multipliers and indicators of progress towards addressing societal challenges. Overall, six major trends are identified in this report.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
People and behaviour: we move in mysterious ways
The notion that individuals are gradually becoming significant drivers of change has been widely reported, particularly in the popular media. In 2006, Time magazine elected ‘You’ (the individual) as person of the year – before the boom in social media and before the Arab Spring revolts, more recent events that reinforce the perception that people, their beliefs and behaviours may increasingly interact with the international and EU landscape. On the one hand, the use of ICTs for censorship in certain states and declining participation level in Western elections suggests that the keynote of this development is divergence. On the other hand, there is a commonly stated expectation that globalisation acts as an integrative and harmonising force and that we should witness a convergence of values affecting how people think and behave as a result. The emergence of a common ethos would influence some of the themes we discussed earlier, including the identity and values of the middle class, declining fertility levels, the diffusion and the use of technologies and migration flows. Yet, the evidence also points to potential divergence in values, as embodied by grassroots populist movements, online activism focusing on specific causes and political or religious extremisms.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Gender equality: a pervading driver of change?
As a cross-cutting driver, gender is affecting several income groups and societies, particularly insofar as inequality is concerned. While each could be seen as an outcome of other societal developments (eg economic growth, value changes), there are several developments that could be seen as driving closure of the gender gap, for example, women’s growing involvement in politics, increasing educational attainment and labour market participation. Attitudes towards gender equality itself are likely to affect several policy areas in the future, owing to their relation with a variety of unpredictable factors such as fertility levels, migration flows and individual empowerment. For example, according to the EUISS, gender equality is one of the main drivers behind individual empowerment and the emergence of the global middle class, through the near-universal access to education and the empowering effects of ICT (EUISS, 2012).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Birth and death: the drivers of demography
The way in which individuals organise at a societal, community or household level – fragmented along dimensions of gender, age, ethnicity or citizenship – are likely to trigger an evolution in how policies are carried out in the future. Demographic change, which is both a cause and a consequence of these evolving organisations and structures, therefore forms a cross-cutting issue. It is thought to be driven by many actors, including medical progress, sanitation, pandemics or conflict and economic conditions, as well as policy levers (Bongaarts, 2009a; Bongaarts, 2009b).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Urbanisation: bigger, better, faster – dirtier, unhealthier, lonelier
As we suggested in section 2.4., populations are becoming increasingly urban. It is argued that the new middle classes are increasingly residing in a large pool of emerging cities that will represent half of global GDP growth and a quarter of the world’s population by 2025.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Technology and media: enabling growth, facilitating inequality?
It is tempting to overstate the influence of technological change on the evolving landscape of the European Union in the long and short term. Yet, technological change is possible only to the extent that individuals and societies understand, accept and absorb technology, or contribute to its development in a variety of ways (ITU, 2011; World Bank, 2012; OECD, 2012a; Perez, 2010). Without this human factor, which ranges from tolerance to adherence, technological change in itself would be close to irrelevant, as past human fears and rejections of new technologies – especially during periods of industrial revolution – suggest. However, the benefit of technological change should be weighed carefully, since the phenomenon is both an enabler and a facilitator of greater ambitions and an accelerator of inequalities between the high- and low-skilled (see Cave et al., 2009; Facer and Sandford, 2012). To this extent, technological change is perhaps one of the most illustrative examples of a cross-cutting issue with uncertain consequences, as it impacts labour, economic growth and other technologies, sometimes in twoway relationships. For instance, in the relationship between labour markets and technology creation, does the latter enable the former or vice versa? The impact of technology on issues ranging from education to skills or demand for political change will depend to a large extent to the adoption of technology. This is likely to be a major driver for change, insofar as future inequalities are projected to revolve around the ability to reap the benefit of technological change for capacity building (in terms of skills, literacy, etc).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Economic recovery: from double-dip recession towards sustained slow growth?
In this period of economic crisis, tensions and distortions, it is often suggested that while short-term measures can alleviate the worst effects of the downturn, economic growth will be the long-term solution to many of the issues currently faced by both developed and emerging countries. As a result, several factors will interact with economic growth to play a significant role in enabling – or hindering – economic recovery. In the longer run, the key question lies in determining the possible transformative effects of economic growth, or lack of it, on the EU landscape.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation