Trends Identified
Enhanced delivery systems
The transportation portion of industrial value chains will be dramatically more efficient, timely and automated. AI and robotic loading equipment will coordinate the movement of goods between transportation modes and systems, a factor that may foster a more competitive domestic manufacturing sector and keeps costs low. Lean and efficient business models characterized by “just-in- me” systems means responsive production and delivery of goods. For smaller deliveries, some vehicles may be displaced by programmable flying drones that can carry small packages between local destinations. These changes will have an impact on employment and on the sector’s overall contribution to gross domestic product.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Sequencing patient DNA may lead to personalized medicine
DNA data will help medical professionals better identify drug treatments that are effective and safe for a particular patient, and at dosages suitable for their metabolism. Personalized drug testing on stem cells cloned from the patient could reduce the need for more general animal and human drug trials and possibly identify a wider range of possible treatments. As the genetic markers of disease become increasingly known, DNA will grow more useful in diagnosis, as well as pre-diagnosis – offering risk profiles of conditions well before the onset of symptoms. Some chronic diseases may be prevented or even eradicated through prenatal interventions, early-life treatments, or possibly gene therapy.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Genomics, nanotechnology and synthetic biology could all create prevention solutions
Beyond the predictive benefits of personalized medicine, nano-driven sensors are offering earlier detection (e.g., needing fewer cells to spot cancer). These sensors will be paired with therapeutics to support early intervention, such as theranostics. Nanotechnology and synthetic biology may alleviate concerns about growing antibiotic resistance through solutions_x000B_to reduce the spread of bacteria or, more effectively, destroy it. Viral outbreaks are already being successfully contained by analyzing an individual’s DNA to detect pathogens. In the future, sensors and electronic records will facilitate this tracking, while synthetic biology may have a role in formula ng just-in- me vaccines.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Health monitoring will move beyond the clinical setting, closer to you
Health sensors will appear more frequently in everyday items such as mobile phones or toilets, wearables (e.g., clothing, jewelry – even skin); in a multifunctional “tricorder” (hand-held diagnostic device); or as part of a “lab-on-a-chip” that people may soon keep in their medicine cabinets. The process
for self-monitoring of health indicators, as well as monitoring of healthy or unhealthy behaviours, will be simpler and more routine. When diagnostic data is networked, AI-augmented and relayed to clinicians, round-the-clock remote care becomes possible. As brain-computer interface (BCI) tools bring greater awareness of mental states, the brain-body connection underlying addictions, illness and treatment will present new options (e.g., neurostimulation, neuro-enhancing drugs, or simply behaviour change).
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Regeneration of lost or diseased tissue
Organ donor wait-lists and black market organ trading may be things of the past for all but the most complicated organs, such as the heart. Growing or 3D printing of organs from a patient’s own cells will allow for faster recovery without rejection. Even nerve damage may become surmountable with the assistance of BCI and robotics. As a consequence, we should anticipate that the line between natural versus enhanced human capability will blur.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Slow shift in the types of resources that are scarce, and the areas that are at risk
Resource scarcity is a potential source of conflict. Advances in synthetic biology could reduce pressure on some scarce natural resources by increasing the security of energy, material and food sources. In parallel, new and different minerals may become scarce. For example, lithium reserves may come under pressure as the demand for batteries grows. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change anticipates that food and water scarcity driven by climate change will be a growing issue and a potential source of conflict and population displacement. Cheaper solar energy would lower the cost of desalination, which could increase food production and reduce the number of refugees forced to leave some drought-prone food-growing areas. This could be bolstered by the development of hardier crops and more adaptive farming methods using new technologies.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Open-source warfare grows
“Do-it-yourself” surveillance and weapon systems will likely become more common, enabling new kinds of crimes and conflict. For example, the Switchblade Drone is lethal at short distances and fits in a small backpack. New developments in sensors, robotics and nanotechnology could lead to the more widespread use of remote sensors in surveillance, intelligence and warfare. Miniature unmanned aerial, surface and aquatic vehicles and devices – controlled either remotely or autonomously – are expected to become more prevalent. These will be smaller, cheaper and more widely available than today. Open-source knowledge may lead to widely distributed cyber-warfare capabilities. In addition, do-it-yourself enthusiasts may use synthetic biology to produce and release harmful substances into the environment – either accidentally or on purpose. In all these cases, technology originally created to enhance security may become the threat. In response, pre-programmed nanodevices and robots will likely create security networks and sensing surfaces that could identify threats such as nano-enabled weapons, viruses and poisons.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The end of public anonymity
Constant monitoring and surveillance will become increasingly prevalent through the use of nano and biosensors, brain-computer interfaces, and artificial intelligence (AI). Smart devices will routinely know a person’s movements and location to within 10 centimetres, which will make it possible to infer a person’s activity, behaviour, interactions and relationships. This will make it increasingly difficult for individuals to go unnoticed, as AI can identify people from face and gait, and even determine the behaviour pa erns of those without smart devices by looking at those who do. These devices will increasingly be used to identify, authenticate and track the movement of food, goods and materials in value chains. Constant monitoring and surveillance could also enhance public health and environmental and personal security. For example, in emergency situations, sensors, AI and machine-to-machine communication could make it easier to locate people and identify their needs. As privacy becomes a major issue, there may be a need to rethink the balance between public and private interests and liberties.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Home is where the ‘brain’ is
The “internet of things” will have considerable impact on homes, but at its core will be the need to make sense of all the information being generated. Homes will
be able to combine, interpret and relay the information coming in from a variety of new sensors
in appliances, fixtures and fittings, information that ranges from specific needs and monitoring of occupants, to basic system diagnostics. Artificial intelligence (AI) and the “internet of things” will move us from the age of the home computer to the age of the “computer home.”
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Interaction will change
New technologies will allow traditional in-home activities to also happen virtually. The seamless management of data and systems, enabled by AI and new materials, will change how homes look. It is likely that new interactive surfaces will appear throughout the home that will allow occupants to monitor and manage household systems and communicate with others. Over time, as technology evolves, traditional building materials and fittings will be displaced by new ones that will integrate with a home’s AI and sensors. These sensors will share information remotely with smart phones and smart vehicles, allowing people to administer their house remotely.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada