Trends Identified
Development and extraction of unconventional raw materials sources
The creation of equipment to develop and extract non-traditional sources of raw materials will guarantee the necessary conditions for the industrial development of new hydrocarbon sources. The application of these technologies implies a several fold increase in the volume of reserves, the geographical expansion of extraction, and the transformation of the raw hydro carbons market with an increase in the proportion of resources and alternatives to traditional oil and natural gas (gashydrates, shale gas, “heavy oil” and oil sands, coal mine methane, methane from high gasbearing coal formations, etc.).
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Energy-efficient and safe next-generation vehicles and systems
The creation of effective and safe next-generation vehicles and systems fits into the current developmental trends of this field to increase energy efficiency, comfort and safety. Vehicles entirely stripped of traditional internal combustion engines are likely to appear in the short term: electric vehicles equipped with high power electrical energy stores, including with a subsidiary electricity generator, or electric vehicles based on fuel cells. It is expected that this product group will achieve leading competitive positions on the market by 2022–2025. By this time conditions will be right for the development of distributed electricity generation based on renewable energy sources and “smart” grids. Electric vehicles will be able to use distributed means to store electrical energy, cover peak electrical loads, reserve power and improve power quality. There may even be a transition to other sources of energy (for example, natural gas or hydrogen), which will bring about an increase in the competitiveness of renewable energy and will support the conservation of non-renewable fossil fuel resources. The structure of the resource base will change for the automotive industry: demand for black metal will fall and demand for polymer materials and aluminium alloys will increase.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
"Space lift"
The creation of cable systems, including the development of a “space elevator” will make it possible to change the orbits of spacecraft, move goods between orbital stations, launch small spacecraft and deliver payloads into orbit, which for traditional rocket technologies is not realistic or would incur significant costs.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Unconventional oil
The cost-effective development of unconventional oil (heavy oils and bitumen) will make it possible to significantly (by several times) increase the hydrocarbon resource base. At the same time, the extraction of heavy oils is much more polluting from an environmental perspective and is characterized by significant increases in CO2 emissions as compared with traditional oil extraction. The extraction costs will only be paid back under the conditions of high global oil prices. Thus, heavy oils are coming to be a strategic reserve of liquid fuel to provide energy for developed nations in the event of a crisis.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Human-Machine Convergence – Leaving Biology Behind
The convergence of humans and machines, also known as transhumanism, human augmentation, cyborging, hacktivism or cybernetics, is a prominent theme in many science fiction stories but we are finally reaching a tipping point, where reality is starting to look more and more like science finction. Drivers of this development are immersive technologies, machine learning/AI, brain-machine Interfaces, artificial/robotic body parts, artificial sensors, skin manipulations etc. We already use technology in our body such as bionic hands and limbs, artificial skin and artificial retinas, but the ideas goes far beyond it, using intellectual and physical improvements as an integral part of the human body. The idea behind it is to either permanently or temporarily merge with technology to enhance performance that exceeds normal human limits, to cure illness and deficiencies and improving mental and body strength. Examples are increased physical power via exoskeletons, improved perception with sensors, inbuild immersive and intelligent technologies, braincomputer interfaces, artificial/ robotic body parts, skin manipulations and others like new drugs and genetic updates. It will start around work and activities that demand extreme physical or mental performance, such as the military, emergency services and sports and all areas where humans need an increased mental focus or altered state, like in arts, creativity, and deep thinking. A convergence will rise ethical questions and in the future, we have to decide which enhancements we would allow, if they have to be visible or not etc. As robotics may involve fewer ethical and legal minefields, future scenario might be to allow limited conversions.
2018
Trend Report 2018 - Emerging Technology Trends
SAP
How Crime and Terror Have Merged: European Jihadists and the New Crime-Terror Nexus
The conventional wisdom used to be that terrorists are middle-class and educated. In October 2016, the World Bank published a study according to which the majority of Islamic State fighters were better educated than their peers. But the picture among European jihadists is strikingly different. Far from being middle-class, they are at home in the ghettos of big cities like Paris and Brussels, and many of them have criminal pasts.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
System of Global Economic Governance
The contemporary global economy bears little resemblance to the fragmented post-World War II period when the current global economic governance regime was constructed. Although institutions created 60 years ago have adapted, the IMF and the World Bank are struggling to become representative and to remain relevant. Efforts to develop global institutions that are structured, funded, and empowered to act as a stabilising force for international financial markets will continue.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
“Internet of Things”
The concept of the development and communication of physical objects, referred to as the “Internet of Things”, appeared in the late 1990s. Its main idea was to fit as many objects as possible with interaction technology, creating a self-organising network of devices (objects) capable of working together to address these challenges and respond to changes in the environment. Such organisation of things (devices, objects) can restructure the corresponding economic and social processes and significantly reduce human involvement in these processes. The increase in the number of devices able to access the Internet, the growth in high-speed wireless networks, the development of machine interaction technologies and new types of sensors, the dissemination of cloud-based solutions and the start of the transition of client devices to IPv6 are all contributing to this. To realise the launch potential of the “Internet of Things” in terms of simple identification of objects in production processes, there needs to be a transformation in business processes in the majority of economic sectors.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
System approaches
The complexities of today’s problems require systemic change rather than simple, incremental responses. Technology, environmental challenges and citizens’ dissatisfaction with “business as usual” are all putting pressure on governments to change their working methods and reach beyond simple solutions and linear equations of cause and effect. This marks an innovative paradigm shift in governance. Rather than layering interventions on top of one another, the public sector should repack policies in ways that allow them to get to the real purpose of change and deliver value to citizens. Human wants, needs and desires are complex, and the systems created to satisfy them are even more so. If simple models are used to analyse them, they will produce simple answers. As human lives and the problems that affect them are intertwined, innovative working methods are needed that take this complexity into account and provide solutions that actually work. One way to address these challenges is to apply a more systemic approach to innovation.
2018
Embracing Innovation in Government: Global Trends 2018
OECD
Big Data Goes to Work
The competition between big data and traditional enterprise data is over: they both win Just as businesses start to appreciate information as a strategic asset, they are overwhelmed with big data – from growing volumes and increasing complexity to the proliferation of unstructured data sources and a surge in external data streams. Internal and external, structured and unstructured. Volume. Variety. Velocity. But where’s the fourth V for Value?
2012
Tech Trends 2012-Elevate IT for digital business
Deloitte