Trends Identified
Systems to provide automated control of the state of vehicles and infrastructure
New technical methods and automated systems to monitor the state of vehicles and infrastructure and oversee their maintenance and repair will make it possible to generate integrated analytical assessments of the level of technological safety and to create a single multi-level vehicle control system. By optimising repair and re-construction schedules for infrastructure it will become possible to reduce the risks associated with operating transport systems without appreciably worsening the operating conditions of traffic flows. The introduction of new products can help to significantly increase the level of safety on transport, optimise road traffic and reduce the degree of wear on key resources. Knowledge of the operations of transport systems and infrastructure in difficult climatic and geological conditions, including Arctic and sub-Arctic zones, could be a competitive advantage for Russian workers and manufacturers.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Techniques and models for situational control in smart transport systems
In the long-term there is expected to be dynamic development of the services market linked to methods and models for situational management in smart transport systems in urban areas. The introduction of such systems will make it possible to increase safety, commercial speed and the predictability of transport, as well as the capacity of the transport system by 15–20% without attracting capital investment to construct and re-construct infrastructure.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
New materials for vehicles and infrastructure
Progress in the field of new materials for vehicles and infrastructure is not possible without technological breakthroughs in material engineering. Special attention will be paid to developing composite materials, metal alloys and metal-ceramics with nanoadditives, nanocoated parts to be used in aggressive environments, metal-polymers and polymer composite materials, carbon fibres with enhanced strength, heat and impact resistance, as well as new types of synthetic lubricants. The use of innovative construction materials in the rolling stock of prospective forms of rail, road and water transport will make it possible to reduce fuel expenditure by up to 20%, increase the safety of using structures and constructions during the planned service timeframe, increase their service life, and decrease environmental pollution by almost twofold.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Energy-efficient and safe next-generation vehicles and systems
The creation of effective and safe next-generation vehicles and systems fits into the current developmental trends of this field to increase energy efficiency, comfort and safety. Vehicles entirely stripped of traditional internal combustion engines are likely to appear in the short term: electric vehicles equipped with high power electrical energy stores, including with a subsidiary electricity generator, or electric vehicles based on fuel cells. It is expected that this product group will achieve leading competitive positions on the market by 2022–2025. By this time conditions will be right for the development of distributed electricity generation based on renewable energy sources and “smart” grids. Electric vehicles will be able to use distributed means to store electrical energy, cover peak electrical loads, reserve power and improve power quality. There may even be a transition to other sources of energy (for example, natural gas or hydrogen), which will bring about an increase in the competitiveness of renewable energy and will support the conservation of non-renewable fossil fuel resources. The structure of the resource base will change for the automotive industry: demand for black metal will fall and demand for polymer materials and aluminium alloys will increase.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Approaches and systems to reduce the negative impact of air transport on the environment
The speed of development of methods and systems to reduce the negative impact of air transport on the environment, aimed primarily at reducing harmful emissions, will increase rapidly. Aside from this, new products will make it possible to reduce fuel costs for passenger transport, noise levels and increase flight safety. By 2030, it is expected that the aviation market will see the emergence of aircraft with improved key characteristics: accident rates will reduce by 8.5 times compared with 2010 levels, fuel costs and CO2 emissions will fall by 1.6 times, NOx emissions will drop by 1.8 times in terms of ICAO standards, and noise levels will be lower by up to 30 dB in terms of ICAO standards. In the period up to 2020, products will appear which fully satisfy future ICAO standards setting strict demands on the environmental factors of air trans- port.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation carrier rockets
Next-generation carrier rockets making wide use of new polymer composite materials (composite proportions 20% higher than in the Proton-M rocket) will have better characteristics compared with existing counterparts by almost twofold. A distinguishing feature of these carrier rockets will be modularity. Such a construction concept firstly helps to simplify delivery of a ready-made product to the launch site by rail transport; secondly, it makes it possible to create a whole family of carrier rockets – from light (based on a single first stage module) launching a ground payload of 1.5 tons into low-earth orbit, to very heavy (up to 50 tons). With the introduction of such systems it will be possible to place payloads of over 50 tons into an orbit of 200 km, which increases the opportunities for space tourism allows to use modular carrier rockets to launch spacecraft to the Moon or nearby planets in the Solar System, and they could even be adapted for the development of deep space. One expected production benefit is linked to economies of scale: modular systems make it possible to move from modern small-scale or even individual production of rocket modules to medium-scale output.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Launch of payloads into orbit using heavy space preparations and modular carrier rockets
In terms of services to place payloads in orbit there will be some development in the transportation of high-mass space instruments and the volume of payloads and spacecraft will increase by using lighter materials and integrated systems alongside reductions in the negative environmental impact.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation telecommunications services based on space systems
The development of next-generation telecommunications services based on space systems holds special importance for our country in view of its colossal territory. In this field the development of new space vehicles and infrastructure is directed at providing consumers with accessible and quality communications services by increasing the speeds of data transfer, providing higher positioning accuracy and more opportunities for the use of positioning in difficult-to-access terrain. In the future, satellite communications systems and television signal broadcasting will be in demand throughout Russian territory. The development of this field will provide an increase in data transfer volumes and multimedia content, including between satellites, by shifting to transmission frequencies up to 100 GHz.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation orbital stations
The creation of next-generation orbital stations is a breakthrough innovation in this field and could make it possible to manufacture special materials, microchips and nanostructures on industrial scales in space. The development of space (orbital) groups, including by creating new space instruments and improving existing rockets and stations and the expansion of ground-based infrastructure, including the creation of new and improved existing cosmodromes, control centres and communications, have already started to take shape. Next-gene- ration orbital stations will have greater levels of energy efficiency, comfort and safety. Moreover, the operating principles of orbital “factories” and automated research complexes will be developed, and foundations for the construction of robotic methods to carry out orbital operations and technical servicing in automated and adaptive modes will be established to provide automated docking technologies and to bring together the modules of a multi- functional orbital complex.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
"Space lift"
The creation of cable systems, including the development of a “space elevator” will make it possible to change the orbits of spacecraft, move goods between orbital stations, launch small spacecraft and deliver payloads into orbit, which for traditional rocket technologies is not realistic or would incur significant costs.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation