Trends Identified
Unconventional oil deposits
Oil from unconventional deposits includes problematic reserves of hydrocarbon raw materials, in particular traditional (or mobile) oil resources with difficult extraction conditions and immobile (or slow-moving) oil, caused by low porosity of collectors or high molecularity of the hydrocarbons themselves – dense and high-viscosity oils. However, on account of the lower consumer qualities and high costs of extraction, oil supplies from unconventional deposits with unconventional extraction conditions are evaluated only provisionally. The extraction of heavy oils is currently carried out in Canada, Venezuela, the USA and a number of other countries, including Russia, but according to the majority of forecasts, in the next two decades these products will not make a significant contribution to the global oil recovery.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Unconventional oil
The cost-effective development of unconventional oil (heavy oils and bitumen) will make it possible to significantly (by several times) increase the hydrocarbon resource base. At the same time, the extraction of heavy oils is much more polluting from an environmental perspective and is characterized by significant increases in CO2 emissions as compared with traditional oil extraction. The extraction costs will only be paid back under the conditions of high global oil prices. Thus, heavy oils are coming to be a strategic reserve of liquid fuel to provide energy for developed nations in the event of a crisis.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Natural gas from unconventional deposits and with unconventional extraction conditions
Natural gas from unconventional deposits with unconventional extraction conditions (shale, water-dissolved, gas from other low-permeability formations and deep beds, coal methane, gas hydrates) is unique for its lower mineral content per unit area and higher development costs compared with traditional reservoirs. Unconventional gas resources are estimated at about 950–1200 trillion m3 (excluding gas-hydrates and water-dissolved gas, which increase this value considerably) and are more than double the volume of traditional resources.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Liquefied natural gas
In recent years the global energy market has seen a significant increase in the role of liquefied natural gas. Its main advantage lies in its potential for transcontinental transportation using high-capacity cryogenic tankers. The development of liquefied natural gas has had a serious impact on the globalisation of world gas markets: opportunities have arisen to extract gas in regions where the routing of pipeline systems is not seen to be appropriate. Additionally a number of countries without their own supplies of natural gas and in geographical disadvantageous regions obtain a possibility to bring gas fuels and raw materials into their economies. Increasing share of natural gas in the global energy balance due to substituting oil and coal gives an impetus to the development of these technologies which also lead to reduced CO2 emissions into the atmosphere.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Gas-hydrates
In Russia there are favourable conditions for the formation and conservation of significant gas-hydrate reserves. It should be noted that this build-up of natural methane hydrates has the greatest possible commercial prospects for industrial development, which is currently limited by the high cost of extraction and high technological risks. The development of industrial technology to extract gas-hydrates would contribute to unprecedented increases in gas reserves, capable of satisfying global demand for several centuries into the future. The extraction of methane from new major gas-hydrate deposits could radically change the configuration of the global gas market and the composition of its major players – both producers and buyers. This is due to the fact that large methane hydrate resources are held by countries which import natural gas (for example, Japan). In Russia, the continental resources of gas-hydrates which are the most promising for industrial development are estimated at approximately 400 trillion m3 and are concentrated in areas along permafrost formations in Eastern Siberia, the Timan-Pechora and Western Siberian oil and gas basins.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Off-shore wind farms
Global growth in electrical capacity at wind farms in the period up to 2035 is expected to be approximately 860 GW, 20% of which should come from high-tech sea-based wind farms. These will be built fastest of all; their total power, according to experts, should grow by more than 40 times, which grounds the interest to off-shore wind farms. At present wind farms’ share of total electricity generation is no more than 1.7%, with the majority only serving as pilot projects. The spread of this type of power plant will make it possible to significantly expand the use of wind’s resources and avoid a number of problems related to the development of land-based wind power, such as the inability to use the land for other economic activities, noise pollution, and the influence of strobing, etc. Off-shore wind is more of a “quality” resource for wind energy, as it is characterised by greater average annual speeds and continuity.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Alternative motor fuels
Alternative motor fuels are intended to satisfy future demands for liquid fuel and are characterised by acceptable costs, minimal environmental and health impact, and increased reliability of supply to domestic markets. In relation to the expected growth in demand for motor fuel, which in Russia now accounts for at least 80-85% of petroleum product output, this alternative product could replace an increasing share of fuels derived from crude oil. According to experts, the likelihood of such fuels competing with traditional fuels after 2020 is high.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Fuel cells
Fuel cells are also potential avenues for development in environmentally-friendly energy. The development of devices offering direct conversion of a fuel’s chemical energy into electricity has for several decades laid claim to the role of a breakthrough technology capable of completely revolutionising the energy sector. The achievements of recent years have brought this technology close to the stage of mass commercial adoption and have regained interest from energy companies. Three main types of fuel cells use are being considered: stationary energy (electricity generation, cogeneration, uninterruptible power supply units); transport energy (power sources in electric vehicles, trucks, military equipment, spacecraft, etc.); portable energy (power sources in mobile devices, battery chargers, etc.). The key strengths of fuel cells are considered to be their high efficiency factor (60–80%) and small size. Shortfalls include the lack of infrastructure for charging and the high cost of platinum which is used as a catalyst.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
High-efficiency photo converters
In the near future, solar energy will be based primarily on the use of various types of highly-effective photoconverters. One of its key advantages is the ability for end users to generate electricity directly, which makes it possible to save on the development of the electricity networks. Currently new promising photoconverters are being actively developed. The technology previews using the full spectrum of solar radiation, characterized by high efficiency factor and long life. Photovoltaic power sources are used to supply power to consumers across a broad power spectrum: from several watts (mini-generators for watches and calculators) to several megawatts (power stations). One key use of photovoltaic converters is in various types of solar arrays; transport and aviation applications for solar arrays are currently under development.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
High capacity electrochemical batteries
Electrochemical batteries to store electricity (accumulators) have seen widespread use in many sectors, primarily for mobile devices and on transport, as well as in stationary units – to provide an uninterrupted supply to important devices (communications, computer equipment, etc.). High capacity electrochemical batteries, used in the energy sector for relatively long-term storage of electricity, could play an important role in distributed generation systems to provide an operational reserve and stabilise the electrophysical parameters of local power systems, including regulating the frequency and voltage. The use of next-generation electrochemical batteries will make it possible to increase the competitiveness of renewable energy sources and to practically implement the distributed generation concept – increasing the load and efficiency of traditional electricity generation units through the opportunity to store energy, increasing the quality of the electricity supply to end consumers, reducing electricity loss in the power grids, cutting development and operating costs for trunk power lines, storing electricity and creating an operational power reserve directly at consumers’ location.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation