Trends Identified
Fully immersive virtual reality (VR)
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Improbable (UK), HelloVR (US), Magic Leap (US), Microsoft (US). See also Mind Maze (US), Facebook (US) and possibly Apple (US).
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Fuel cells, catalysts for innovative energy sources
Fuel cells and catalysts for innovative energy sources will be able to use the large number of nanotechnological materials used to design various types of energy sources. In particular, these include: hybrid nanostructured proton-conducting membranes including nanoparticles which improve their transmission properties, and nano-scale catalysts based on platinum and transition metals (including “core in the shell” type catalysts) used to create fuel cells; nano-scale cathode materials with mixed electron-ion conductivity and nanostructured anode materials based on various forms of silicon and carbon, from which lithium-ion batteries are formed; There will also be developed catalysts to produce innovative energy sources and chemical products many of which are already used in industrial production. efficient nano-scale catalysts for deep processing of oil and gas products; nano-scale catalysts for conversion of natural gas and associated gases into liquid petroleum, hydrogen and valuable organic products; nano-sized catalysts for processing renewable raw materials (biogas and biomass) into valuable organic products; a wide range of nano-sized catalysts for the production of innovative energy sources and processing of natural ones;
nano-scale granular membranes based on complex oxides with a perovskite, spinel and fluorite structure, used in processes to partially oxidise methane and associated gases into synthesis gas at low temperatures, or nano-scale catalysts to convert biomass products into synthesis gas.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Fuel cells
Fuel cells are also potential avenues for development in environmentally-friendly energy. The development of devices offering direct conversion of a fuel’s chemical energy into electricity has for several decades laid claim to the role of a breakthrough technology capable of completely revolutionising the energy sector. The achievements of recent years have brought this technology close to the stage of mass commercial adoption and have regained interest from energy companies. Three main types of fuel cells use are being considered: stationary energy (electricity generation, cogeneration, uninterruptible power supply units); transport energy (power sources in electric vehicles, trucks, military equipment, spacecraft, etc.); portable energy (power sources in mobile devices, battery chargers, etc.). The key strengths of fuel cells are considered to be their high efficiency factor (60–80%) and small size. Shortfalls include the lack of infrastructure for charging and the high cost of platinum which is used as a catalyst.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Fuel cell vehicles
“Fuel cell” vehicles have been long promised, as they potentially offer several major advantages over electric and hydrocarbon-powered vehicles. However, the technology has only now begun to reach the stage where automotive companies are planning to launch them for consumers. Initial prices are likely to be in the range of $70,000, but should come down significantly as volumes increase within the next couple of years. Unlike batteries, which must be charged from an external source, fuel cells generate electricity directly, using fuels such as hydrogen or natural gas. In practice, fuel cells and batteries are combined, with the fuel cell generating electricity and the batteries storing this energy until demanded by the motors that drive the vehicle. Fuel cell vehicles are therefore hybrids, and will likely also deploy regenerative braking – a key capability for maximizing efficiency and range. Unlike battery-powered electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles behave as any conventionally fuelled vehicle. With a long cruising range – up to 650 km per tank (the fuel is usually compressed hydrogen gas) – a hydrogen fuel refill only takes about three minutes. Hydrogen is clean-burning, producing only water vapour as waste, so fuel cell vehicles burning hydrogen will be zero-emission, an important factor given the need to reduce air pollution. There are a number of ways to produce hydrogen without generating carbon emissions. Most obviously, renewable sources of electricity from wind and solar sources can be used to electrolyse water – though the overall energy efficiency of this process is likely to be quite low. Hydrogen can also be split from water in high-temperature nuclear reactors or generated from fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas, with the resulting CO2 captured and sequestered rather than released into the atmosphere. As well as the production of cheap hydrogen on a large scale, a significant challenge is the lack of a hydrogen distribution infrastructure that would be needed to parallel and eventually replace petrol and diesel filling stations. Long distance transport of hydrogen, even in a compressed state, is not considered economically feasible today. However, innovative hydrogen storage techniques, such as organic liquid carriers that do not require high-pressure storage, will soon lower the cost of long-distance transport and ease the risks associated with gas storage and inadvertent release. Mass-market fuel cell vehicles are an attractive prospect, because they will offer the range and fuelling convenience of today’s diesel and petrol-powered vehicles while providing the benefits of sustainability in personal transportation. Achieving these benefits will, however, require the reliable and economical production of hydrogen from entirely low-carbon sources, and its distribution to a growing fleet of vehicles (expected to number in the many millions within a decade).
2015
Top 10 emerging technologies of 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Frontier Disputes
Out to 2040, the position of international boundaries and frontiers is likely to be a source of tension. These tensions will either be between two opposing states, or, by an existing ethnic or nationalist group whose historic territories are divided by an international border. Most frontier disputes are settled amicably through legal arrangements. For example, in 2008 Russia and China settled a century old dispute regarding their Amur River border. However, other frontier disputes are less liable to be settled amicably, especially where ethnic differences are aggravated by inequality and also historical antagonism, and where access and ownership of scarce resources are involved.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
From workforce to crowdsource: The rise of the borderless enterprise
Picture a workforce that extends beyond your employees: one that consists of any user connected to the Internet. Cloud, social, and collaboration technologies now allow organizations to tap into vast pools of resources across the world, many of whom are motivated to help. Channeling these efforts to drive business goals is a challenge, but the opportunity is enormous: it can give every business access to an immense, agile workforce that is not only better suited to solving some of the problems that organizations struggle with today but in many cases will do it for free.
2014
Accenture Technology Vision 2014
Accenture
From cost to collaboration: Redefining the value chain
Outsourcing (both supply chain and traditional back office functions)1 has been a regular feature of business life for many years. Through their responses to this survey, CEOs have indicated a marked shift in their motivation for using external suppliers, from simply as a mechanism to lower cost to a means of achieving a more strategic, collaborative framework. In tandem, CEOs tell us of an increasing trend to expand the scope of activity that is covered by outsourcing arrangements, from the traditional component supplies and IT infrastructure to other activities that, in the past, were held sacrosanct, including human resource management (HRM) and R&D.
2007
10th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Frictionless Business - Built to Partner at Scale
Businesses depend on technology-based partnerships for growth, but their own legacy systems aren’t designed to support partnerships at scale. To fully power the connected Intelligent Enterprise, companies must first re-architect themselves.
2018
Accenture Technology vision 2018
Accenture
Fragmented World
A dysfunctional Europe is absorbed in regional threats. Then United States gives up on the policeman role. Protectionism provides an initial domestic economic boost, but leads to lower global growth over the medium term. Russia and China become regionally dominant.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Fragmentation of regulatory approach to ICT and big data
Despite the potential of big data and cloud computing, fragmented regulatory environments in the EU and a lack of adopted interoperability approaches and standards pose significant barriers. The lack of clear guidance in this field causes regulatory uncertainty on how to apply the relevant provisions from the existing EU regulatory framework. Member States have started to adopt different approaches, creating a risk of fragmentation of the digital single market and deterring EU wide investment and innovation.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)