Trends Identified
Fragile globalisation in a multipolar world
Fears about weakening enthusiasm for globalisation have, seemingly, been realised in the past few years. However, there are numerous variables that will shape whether the purported anti- trade environment of 2016 lasts to 2035. In the most likely scenario, globalisation patterns will be shaped less by politics and more by structural factors. Global trade is steady as a percentage of global growth, likely due to China’s reorientation towards domestic consumption and the maturing of trade in goods. A more services-oriented economy will have different requirements for global trade governance, but Beijing, Brussels, and Washington will remain the key decision points for global economic affairs.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Fractured Identities
Several contributing factors may lead to a fracturing of national identity. In a more connected world, different cultures and groups gain a better understanding of each other, which may lessen internal strife. However, as a consequence of a number of factors (i.e. migration, globalisation, human networks and transparency), citizens may begin to identify themselves differently, and thus create heightened feelings of detachment from the whole or nation state. Individuals may rally around sub-national and supra-national groups, identifying themselves in terms of their city, ethnic nationality, religious or other association. Governments, corporations and non-state actors will find it increasingly difficult to identify a single public opinion on key issues. Affiliation with anti-government or extremist groups, as well as other challenges to national identity, will contribute to state instability and possible unrest.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Fractured and/or polarized societies.
Polarization of societies has become a worldwide phenomenon; however, western developed nations are particularly vulnerable due to increased empowerment of individuals. Polarization can also exist between countries.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Fourth-generation system development
From the mainframe era, through client-server, and into the era of the desktop, the history of computing has been shaped by new capabilities (new hardware, new algorithms, new ways of doing things) that in turn stimulate new kinds of demands. Simply giving the 1980s-era personal computer a network connection, for example, turned out to have far-reaching effects on how enterprise systems were designed, built and used. In this decade, a wave of new capabilities will push system architecture into unexplored territory, ushering in a fourth generation of system-building. The forces propelling this new era are, as always, both technological and economic. The technologies range from parallel chip architectures to multi-tenancy, from new data storage techniques to advancements in programming languages. The economies are economies of scale: the cost profile of modern data centers or the efficiencies wrung from the manufacture of mobile chips. But progress may not be as smoothly and broadly distributed as it was in the age of Moore’s Law. Instead, innovations may be more localized, confined to more narrow domains. Competitive advantage will go to those who are aware of the technology hot spots, able to discern what will prove useful—and ready with the skills to seize the opportunity.
2010
Accenture technology vision
Accenture
Fourth-generation reactors and nuclear-waste recycling
Current once-through nuclear power reactors use only 1% of the potential energy available in uranium, leaving the rest radioactively contaminated as nuclear “waste”. While the technical challenge of geological disposal is manageable, the political challenge of nuclear waste seriously limits the appeal of this zero-carbon and highly scalable energy technology. Spent-fuel recycling and breeding uranium-238 into new fissile material – known as Nuclear 2.0 – would extend already-mined uranium resources for centuries while dramatically reducing the volume and long-term toxicity of wastes, whose radioactivity will drop below the level of the original uranium ore on a timescale of centuries rather millennia. This makes geological disposal much less of a challenge (and arguably even unnecessary) and nuclear waste a minor environmental issue compared to hazardous wastes produced by other industries. Fourth-generation technologies, including liquid metal-cooled fast reactors, are now being deployed in several countries and are offered by established nuclear engineering companies.
2013
The top 10 emerging technologies for 2013
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Fourth generation mobile communications (4G)
Fourth generation mobile communications (4G) are widely accepted as promising technologies which make it possible to transfer data at speeds in excess of 100 Mbit/s for mobile and 1 Gbit/s for fixed subscribers. The introduction of such networks has already started and in the near future there is expected to be widespread dissemination of 4G communications on a global scale and associated development of new forms of content services and business models.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Fostering a global workforce in dynamic times
2010
Business Redefined - A look at the global trends that are changing the world of business
EY
Forever young
The ageing population
is an asset. Australia and many other countries that make up the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have an ageing population. Elderly citizens provide a wealth of skills, knowledge, wisdom and mentorship. Nevertheless, there are some challenges associated with an ageing population and associated demographic trends. Two of these challenges include Australia’s widening retirement savings gap and rapidly escalating healthcare expenditure.
This will change people’s lifestyles, the services
they demand and the structure and function
of the labour market.
2012
Our future world - globla megatrends that will change the way we live
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Force fields
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Dstl (UK), Boeing (US).
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
For respite, we will turn to inspirational commerce.
In an anxious world, we’re going to need more than a juice cleanse to take care of our exhausted psyches, writes Gina Bianchini, CEO of Mighty Networks. Health and wellness influencers, exhausted themselves, are shifting their models to building supportive communities and connecting their fans to each other, rather than amassing a large number of one-way followers — communities they can monetize through memberships or events. Bianchini writes: "While the first generation of e-commerce was about selling physical products online, this coming wave of 'inspirational commerce' is about creating opportunities for people to buy experiences and connections to realize their full potential.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn